Luka Doncic came to the NBA as the type of talent you wouldn’t’ want to miss. Of course, there’s has been major development in his gameplay, naturally learning the NBA style and growing as a player. But Luka and his team have remained relatively familiar.
Ever since Kristaps Porzingis was traded to the Washington Wizards in 2022, the Dallas team has followed a similar roster construction strategy: pairing Doncic with a scoring guard as his co-star, emphasizing the recruitment of versatile defenders, and prioritizing rim protection. However, this approach has its difficulties, including a shortage of defensive prowess, numerous games being decided by the performance of role players, like Tim Hardaway Jr. making 3-point shots or not, coupled with an excessive reliance on Doncic.
But more recently, the tides have turned in Dallas. Following Kyrie Irving's return on Feb. 5 and the acquisition of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford before the trade deadline, the Dallas Mavericks have surged up the Standings in the west, going 17-7 since the trade deadline to April 1st. During this period, the Mavericks have boasted the league's third-best offense, the seventh-best defense, and the third-best net rating. Notably, going 12-1 at the end of March, the Mavs have moved from 9 seed just a few weeks ago, to the number 5 seed at the time of this video. With a few games remaining, and a competitive Western Conference, the final standings are certainly not set. But one thing is clear, Dallas has been hot.
Luka and the Mavs have changed their identity as a team, on both ends of the court.
From the beginning of this season until February 10th, their defensive ranked 22nd, their offense ranked 12th, and their net rating ranked 17th, with a record of 29-23 during this period. It’s worth mentioning that Luka was absent from 8 games during that stretch, and Kyrie missed 22.
From February 10th, after going 14-6, they boast the league's 10th-best defense, the third-best offense, and the fifth-best net rating. Irving has participated in every game, while Doncic was absent for just one. And if you narrow that scope to the last month, they look even better.
Thanks to Luka Doncic, widely regarded as one of the premier creators of 3-point shots in the league, Dallas has consistently ranked among the top teams in catch-and-shoot proficiency over the years. Since the deadline, however, Dallas has shifted their offensive identity. Not only do they take less threes, but they have a heavy focus in the paint.
In early March, Coach Jason Kidd made the decision to insert Gafford into the starting lineup ahead of rookie center Dereck Lively II. More significantly, however, Kidd committed to utilizing both players as the team's primary centers in nearly every game. Over the past nine games, Gafford and Lively have collectively averaged 24.6 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game. While neither player holds the title of the team's third-best player individually, their consistent contributions as a tandem have been undeniable.
Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively seamlessly integrate into Doncic and Kyrie’s pick-and-roll expertise. While players like PJ Washington and Dante Exum are still required to create opportunities within the offense guided by the team's superstar duo, this Dallas squad now excels in dominating near the basket unlike any of its previous iterations during the Doncic era. Notably, in a recent victory against the Utah Jazz, the Mavericks recorded 18 dunks, the highest tally by any team in a single game this season. They've dominated against teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets, leveraging offensive rebounds and capitalizing on second-chance points.
From the beginning of the season up to the trade deadline, the Mavs averaged 16.3 points in the paint per game, ranking 27th in the league. From the trade deadline to today, Dallas has skyrocketed to 8th in the league in paint points at.
Under Doncic’s leadership, the team has never showcased such athleticism, a characteristic evident since the beginning of the season. This heightened athleticism has aligned with Kidd's preference for a faster pace.
Even as Doncic has evolved into his most dominant form yet, boasting the strongest MVP candidacy of his career, his essence remains strikingly similar to the player he has always been. However, the spotlight now shines on the collective unit surrounding him – a team brimming with explosive athletes who dash down the court after defensive rebounds and anxiously await the opportunity to catch alley-oops. When Doncic penetrates towards the basket, he often exhibits a preference for threading lob passes rather than seeking his own scoring opportunities. In the past, his kickout passes for 3-pointers served as a reliable but secondary option. Now, with the presence of Gafford and Lively, he has an expanded array of targets with wider ranges and longer wingspans, along with added hesitation from opposing shot blockers.
But even though Luka, Kyrie and the supporting cast have been great of late, the reality behind their surge since the trade deadline is that their defense reached a different level.
The supposed Achilles' heel of the Luka-Kyrie Mavericks was always their defensive capability. Despite their offensive prowess, they were often seen as subpar on the defensive end. Consequently, the prevailing belief was that they lacked the potential to make significant collective strides. That of course is no longer true.
As the chart showed previously, the Mavs made the jump from the 22nd best defense, to the 10th in between the trade deadline, going back to the changes made with the team’s frontcourt by acquiring big men Daniel Gafford from the Wizards and P.J. Washington from the Hornets. The latter trade required the Mavericks to acknowledge that their offseason acquisition of forward Grant Williams had not panned out as expected. Williams, who had been signed to a four-year, $54 million contract in the summer as part of a three-team sign-and-trade, was shipped off to Charlotte along with Seth Curry and a 2027 first-round pick as part of the Washington deal. With those additions complementing Lively and Jones Jr, the Mavericks now boast a supporting cast that demonstrates the ability to complement a Luka-Kyrie defensive strategy.
Should the Mavericks manage to make a significant impact in the postseason, it would mark a remarkable turnaround from the woes they faced in Dallas just a year prior. Following their defeat to the Warriors in the Western Conference finals in 2022, they stumbled to a 38-44 record, landing them in 11th place in the West and missing the playoffs for only the fifth time in the franchise's preceding 23 years.
Predictably, speculation had already begun among rival teams about Doncic’s future and whether he might consider departing. The controversial decision to pair him with Irving did little to silence these discussions. If they had persisted along that trajectory, it would undoubtedly have heightened the pressure on Coach Kidd as well. However, make no mistake, this new direction has the potential to alter the Mavericks' storyline significantly.
So, here’s the question. With Doncic, once more entrenched in the MVP contention, and the team on a hot streak in the second half, are the Dallas Mavericks legitimate contenders for an NBA championship?
Top-Tier Talent
Throughout league history, every champion has been anchored by a top-tier player in the sport, and Luka obviously fits that bill. Remarkably, he's currently exhibiting the finest form of his career. Averaging over 34 points, leading the league, and nearing a triple double with points and rebounds. He's also achieving a career-high 38% shooting from beyond the arc on over 10 attempts per night. Luka's ability to manipulate defenses to his advantage is unparalleled, regardless of the defensive schemes thrown his way—he meticulously dissects them at his own deliberate pace.
Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving has seamlessly adapted to his role as the complementary piece in the Mavericks' offense. While Doncic directs the flow of play, Irving navigates the intricacies of Dallas's high-octane offensive system. His catch-and-shoot proficiency from three-point range has been outstanding, boasting a career-best 41% conversion rate from beyond the arc on over 7 attempts per game, approaching elite levels of efficiency. In 53 games played, Kyrie is almost having a 50/40/90 season.
With Irving and Doncic operating in sync, the Mavericks possess the ability to field the premier players in any series they compete in. Specifically, with Doncic leading the charge, Dallas can feel good about facing off against top-tier offensive talents like Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and any other formidable offensive engines in the league.
Defensive Strength
Offensively, they rank sixth in efficiency in the league. And since the trade deadline, their offense has surged to third best in the league. With a combination of Luka, Kyrie, and a supporting cast of skilled shooters and finishers, the Mavericks possess the offensive arsenal to contend at the highest level.
However, again, it's their defensive performance that truly changes their identity.
Their starting lineup, which has recently accumulated just over 100 minutes of playing time, comprising Gafford, Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Irving, and Doncic, boasts an impressive +22 net rating, coupled with a defensive rating of 95.5—an outstanding figure that would lead the league by a significant margin.
And with Washington and Kleber, the Mavericks possess a versatile frontcourt capable of adapting to various defensive strategies, remaining flexible while resilient. Both players can seamlessly transition to small-ball center roles, providing floor-spacing and facilitating a 5-out offensive scheme. Additionally, they can be paired with either Lively or Gafford to bolster Dallas's size if necessary.
The Mavericks' recent surge seems undeniably authentic. They have forged a distinct identity, excelling on both offense and defense, led by the unparalleled creativity of Doncic, and reinforced by Irving's exceptional ability to alleviate pressure. As a team, they have transformed into a formidable defensive unit, further solidifying their status as a force to be reckoned with. Don’t be shocked to see Luka’s Mavs make a run this postseason.