Joel Embiid recently made a comeback after missing four games due to a sore ankle, which was the reason he sat out in the 76ers' Christmas Day game against the Miami Heat. Following his impressive performance in a January 2 victory against the Chicago Bulls, where he achieved a triple-double with 31 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists, the current reigning NBA MVP faced questions about a new league policy. This policy, introduced in October to address load management concerns, stipulates that players are to be disqualified from major individual awards, including Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and All-NBA honors, if they don't participate in at least 65 games. Here’s what Embiid had to say about missing games (CLIP).
Three days after this interview took place, Embiid experienced a minor tweak in his left knee during Philadelphia's defeat against the New York Knicks. Following this, he sat out the next three games but returned to the court on Monday, delivering another outstanding performance in a victory against the Houston Rockets. At the time of this video, Embiid has already missed 10 games. The 76ers are half through the season, leaving 40 remaining on their schedule. So far, Embiid has been leading the MVP race, and the reigning MVP has been outstanding, outdoing most of the numbers he put up last season. But for Joel Embiid to become a 2-time MVP this season, he can only miss 7 more games to meet the 65-game rule.
But as the NBA approaches the All-Star break, Philadelphia's star player is not the sole superstar facing the potential impact on postseason honors and lucrative financial incentives. Let’s look at how the 65-game rule is affecting players around the league, and how it could heavily influence who the next MVP is.
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The 65-Game Rule
The 65-game rule, covering nearly 80% of the 82-game regular season, was implemented alongside the in-season tournament and a broader player participation policy. These measures aim to emphasize the importance of the regular season and encourage teams to field their top players more frequently. (Adam Silver CLIP)
In a recent league-commissioned report disputing the belief that load management reduces long-term injury risks for players, the NBA highlighted the escalating trend in missed games among star players over the past four decades. Star players in this case being players who were All-Stars, or All-NBA selections in that current season or the previous two seasons.
That report revealed that in the 1980s, star players missed an average of 10.4 games per season. In the 1990s it was 10.6 games missed per season. 13.9 through the 2000s. It then jumped to 17.5 games through the 2010s. And so far in the 2020s, that number has increased steadily to 23.9 games missed per season. Or in other words, star players are playing on average of about 58 of the 82 games per season.
Applying the 65-Game Rule to the Past
Since the NBA transitioned to an 82-game schedule in 1968, there have been only 11 occurrences where a player secured one of the major awards or earned a spot on the All-NBA First Team in a regular season with fewer than 65 games played. Those of course do not include shortened seasons like 2020 or 2012. It's noteworthy that in all these cases, the players faced significant injuries that sidelined them for an extended period during their award-winning seasons, as opposed to falling short of the threshold due to load management.
Of those 11 instances, Bill Walton stands alone as the sole player to secure an MVP Award in a complete 82-game season, playing under the 65-game threshold. The big man suffered a broken foot in February, forcing him to sit out the remainder of the regular season. While he made a comeback during the playoffs, his participation in Game 2 of the first-round series against the Seattle Super Sonics required a painful injection. Subsequent X-rays revealed a broken bone in his ankle, leading to his absence for the rest of the postseason and marking the end of his tenure with the Blazers. Fun fact, Walton later filed a lawsuit against the team's medical staff.
Had Walton been deemed ineligible under the current criteria, the MVP honor, based on the voting standards of that time, would have been bestowed upon George Gervin. Gervin secured the second position with 80.5 points compared to Walton's 96. The San Antonio Spurs star averaged 27.2 points per game, 5.1 rebounds per game, and 3.7 assists per game, contributing significantly to his team's 52-30 record, especially because he played in all 82 games. While already a Hall of Famer, Gervin's legacy would have been further elevated with the addition of an MVP accolade to his name.
Influencing the Money
Among the players chosen for the three All-NBA teams in the 2022-23 season, five of them would have fallen short of the new standards. Giannis Antetokounmpo (63), Stephen Curry (56), Jimmy Butler (64), LeBron James (55), and Damian Lillard, (58).
Consequently, this rule would have had implications for the financial prospects of several top-tier players. To illustrate, let’s look at Pascal Siakam. Siakam secured the ninth position in All-NBA voting among forwards, trailing behind players like Giannis, Jimmy Butler, and LeBron James. If the 65-game rule had been in effect last season, Siakam would have been one of the six forwards meeting the criteria, which would have made him eligible for a supermax contract extension in this coming summer had he stayed in Toronto. It’s not crazy to assume that with a 65-game rule and Siakam qualifying for All-NBA, the former all-star likely never seeks a trade and never ends up on the Pacers.
The impact of the rule could extend to more players in the current season. Jamal Murray (14 missed games so far), Bam Adebayo (10 missed games), and De'Aaron Fox (6 missed games) would each become supermax eligible if they earn All-NBA honors this season. All three of the players mentioned have missed several games already and it will be interesting to see how many they end up with as they make a push to qualify for the additional money that comes from NBA honors and awards.
The decisions at hand carry significant implications for Fox and Adebayo specifically. Should they fall short of making All-NBA due to too many missed games, both players would be eligible for a three-year extension worth $152 million with the Heat and the Kings, respectively. On the other hand, achieving All-NBA status would open the door to a more lucrative four-year, $245 million supermax extension. Adebayo and Fox face the potential of a $93 million contrast in their upcoming contracts based on All-NBA voting outcomes. An honor that may be decided by the number of games played by an individual player.
The emerging star Pacers guard, Tyrese Haliburton, recently missed 7 games due to a hamstring injury. If for some reason those missed games continue to pile on and he falls short of the 65-game mark, that could potentially change his contract potentials by $41 million.
The 65-Game Loophole
It’s worth mentioning however, that for players who do not meet the 65-game requirement, there are established procedures in place to pursue reinstatement of eligibility specifically for awards.
Once a player officially falls short of reaching 65 games played, the rule stipulates that they have a two-day window to file a grievance. Subsequently, an arbitration hearing involving the player, team, league, and players' union will be convened.
To initiate a grievance, a player must present clear and convincing evidence that the team deliberately limited their minutes or games played with the explicit intention of preventing eligibility for one or more awards. That requirement seems like it will be hard meet.
An injury-related provision exists as well: If a player sustains a season-ending injury just before hitting the 65-game threshold, they may still retain award eligibility. However, the player must have participated in at least 62 regular-season games, suffered an injury ending their season, and played in at least 85% of their team's games prior to the injury.
Additionally, there is an "extraordinary circumstances" clause. Nonetheless, sources from the league and players' union suggest that injuries alone are not expected to meet the criteria, as it would essentially undermine the purpose of the rule.
Embiid Compared to Last Year
But let’s go back to Joel Embiid. Last season, Embiid of course was named as the league MVP. And while the 65-Game rule wasn’t in place yet, Embiid played 66 games during the regular season, missing a total of 16 games and passing 65-mark by one. At the time this video is published, Embiid has played in 32 of the 76ers 42 games. Being absent for a total 10 games so far. Last season, at this same date, Embiid had already missed 12 of the 16 games he missed. That means in the second half he played every game except 4. And the last 2 games he missed were the last 2 games of the regular season, and 76ers were really just resting him for the playoffs.
The question arises, will Joel Embiid follow a similar pattern to conclude this season? He has followed a pattern of playing more to close out the season. But even if Embiid qualifies by games played, is it enough to be the clear MVP?
Last season, Embiid won a controversial MVP award. I personally thought Nikola Jokic should have won it. But this year, both Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are on pace to finish with historical regular season efforts. Currently, their teams both sit at the 3 seed in their respective conferences. And lucky for NBA fans, it looks like it’s going to be a close race to the finish. Who do you think will win the 2023-24 MVP Award? Let us know your guesses in the comments.
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