The MVP Race is Officially OVER
The Most Valuable Player Award stands out as the premier regular season accolade for an individual player. In theory, the award recognizes the supremacy of an individual as the greatest player for a respective season. But the winner of the MVP award is not always obvious. And every year there is a debate amongst fans about who is the most deserving. But what defines the "most valuable player," and how does it diverge from being the league's best player? Furthermore, how much should the team's success factor into the award's criteria?
For the first time in a few years, the top of the MVP race includes of some new candidates. With Embiid out with a knee injury, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic make their push for the award, joining the two 2-time MVPS, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo to form the top four candidates as the NBA regular season approaches its final weeks. Let’s go over the rules.
The MVP award is difficult because it has never been officially defined. How do voters determine who is the most valuable player in the league? Can a player be more valuable than another player that is actually better than him? An examination of NBA history suggests that the criteria for MVP voters has developed. It’s evolved over time.
In 2017, NBA.com asked 8 MVP Voters what they were basing their voting on. For the most part, the voters agreed. The overarching opinion is that:
- The MVP award should be given to the best player on the best team. However, they agree on two additional potential MVP archetypes.
- A player who has done something statistically unprecedented.
- A player that has led his to team so far above their pre-season predicted success.
Now, for context, this discussion occurred in April 2017, in the heat of debate during a controversial MVP race. Ultimately, Russell Westbrook won the award after averaging a triple double for the first time since Osar Robertson did it in the 1961-62 season. But Westbrook and Thunder finished as the 6th seed, only winning a total of 47 games. Meanwhile, James Harden, who was just 1.9 rebounds per game away from a triple double, was leading the Rockets to 55 wins. And Kawhi Leonard, who finished in third place, had impressive statistics of his own while leading the Spurs to 61 wins. It’s also worth mentioning that no one from the 67-win Warriors team finished within the top 5 of in MVP voting.
It seems that the pattern for the MVP award is to give the honor to the best player on the best team, unless someone is doing something outstandingly unique. For example, in the last 15 years, 60% of the MVP Awards have been given to the best player, on the team with the best record. And you could make the argument that each of the 6 players that won the award, not on the best team did something statistically remarkable, especially compared to the competition of that year.
Best Player Best Team
Now, considering the past, what does it tell us about this year’s MVP Award? Well, the Celtics are currently many games ahead of the next best team. Jayson Tatum is the clear best player in Boston and is turning in a reasonable MVP-level season statistically (27.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 8.2 RPG). If you compare his stats to MVPs of the past, he fits right in. But on almost every MVP tracker or any betting odds, Tatum is consistently ranking 5th in the race, with Basketball Reference’s Tracker giving him just a 4.3% chance to win the award.
The Celtics are having a dominant season, but this year’s MVP race seems to be focused on something different than past awards. Clearly, the “Best Player/Best Team MVP,” is not happening this year. So, what’s the case for the other candidates? Do any of them meet the criteria set by previous MVPs? In my opinion the MVP Race comes down to two players. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both putting up phenomenal statistical seasons and are leading their teams to great records, they still fall short of the “best player/best team narrative,” and compared to the other competition, they just aren’t there statistically. Again, their numbers are great, but this year is different from others. That leaves Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. Lets’ start with Luka.
The Case for Luka Doncic
Luka Doncic has been a stat-filler since entering the league, but this season is especially remarkable. Detailing Doncic’s accomplishments this season provides a compelling argument for the MVP going in his favor. Consider his impressive basic statistics: averaging a league-leading 33.9 points per game, along with 9.8 assists (ranking third) and 9.1 rebounds (17th). When tallying both his scoring and assists, Doncic generates a staggering 59.1 points per game, leading the league this season and potentially setting a new record in NBA history. His box scores overflow with impressive numbers, challenging other historic statistical seasons.
Additionally, Luka showcases remarkable efficiency, boasting a 62.2 percent true shooting percentage this season. His scoring average, coupled with this efficiency, could potentially surpass the record for the highest scoring average by a player shooting over 60 percent in that statistic. Also, Doncic is on pace to achieve the 11th season in NBA history with a usage rate of 36 percent or higher while maintaining a turnover rate below 13 percent, a feat he has already accomplished twice. While Doncic dominates possession of the ball to a degree unprecedented in earlier eras of basketball, his performance justifies this level of control. When faced with the traditional trade-off between quality and quantity, Luka defies expectations by excelling in both aspects.
In ESPN’s annual preseason predictions, the Mavericks were predicted to finish the season with a record 43 wins and 39 losses, potentially even missing the playoffs. With 10 games remaining, the Mavs are 43-29, with 7 of those remaining games being against teams with worse records than Dallas. Luka has the chance to lead his team past the expectations, while turning in an all-time individual season. At the time of this video, the Mavs sit at the 6-seed in West, but still have the potential to move up a couple slots.
The Case for Nikola Jokic
But here’s the thing. While Luka’s season is in many unprecedented, the competition this year is as steep as ever. And at the top of the list, is another offensive juggernaut, Nikola Jokic. And if I’m being completely truthful. This MVP race is over. Honestly, they might as well transport the trophy back to Denver.
Nikola Jokic is currently fourth in the NBA in rebounding with 12.3 per game, fourth in assists with 9.0 per game, and is averaging 26.1 points. With the Nuggets occupying the 1 seed, sometimes moving to position 2 behind the Thunder, Nikola Jokic is clearly the best player in the league and significantly ahead of his competition.
What makes his dominance remarkable is the sheer talent and depth across the NBA. The top 10 of the MVP list doesn’t even include the likes of LeBron, KD, and Steph, who are aging but still turning in all-time seasons. AD, Anthony Edwards, Sabonis, Devin Booker. The list of talent goes on. Its honestly hard to recall an era with such a wealth of top-tier talent. For Jokic to stand in a position clearly above them all, is a testament to his incredible ability.
This also underscores the need to properly contextualize what we're witnessing. Jokic is the only player in the league who seems immune to defensive strategies; there's no effective way to scheme against him. Across the league, there isn't a single individual matchup capable of giving him real trouble. In previous seasons, Rudy Gobert would pose a significant challenge for Jokic due to his length and athleticism. However, this trend shifted around 2019, with Jokic asserting dominance in their matchups for the past five years. Currently, the closest comparison we have on offense is between Doncic and Embiid. However, Embiid's dominance primarily shines in the regular season, whereas defenses have gotten to him in the post season, stopping the 6ers in the earlier rounds. Luka on the other hand, occasionally struggles with his shooting accuracy from long range. But perhaps he can leave that reputation in the past this post season.
In historical terms, a prime LeBron James stands out as the last player the league has witnessed who seemed unbeatable. While some may argue for the 2016 version of Stephen Curry, his performance in the NBA Finals that June demonstrated that James was unequivocally the superior player at that time. Both Jokic and James share dynamic playmaking skills and the capacity to single-handedly dominate games offensively while also enabling their teammates to flourish within their individual strengths.
Currently, what we're watching with Jokic represents the highest pinnacle of center dominance in the league since Shaquille O’Neal. Expanding the scope to include big men irrespective of position would naturally lead us to also consider the remarkable career of Tim Duncan. But Jokic and O’Neal stand out as the last two centers who posed nearly insurmountable defensive challenges for opponents. But even with Shaq, teams could resort to fouling him and banking on missed free throws to maintain competitiveness. And while Shaq’s playmaking skills are often underrated, he still isn’t near Jokic. It's arguable that we've never witnessed a center who consistently excels as a three-level scorer like Nikola Jokic. The Joker joins Magic Johnson and LeBron James as the greatest dynamic passers in league history, and doing from the Center position makes his place additionally special.
An MVP Statistic
Now, let’s look at one more viewpoint of the MVP race. An important stat when considering the MVP is Win Shares. Basketball Reference describes Win Shares as a “player statistic which attempts to divvy up credit for team success to the individuals on the team.” It considers major stats that contribute to offense and defense, combining them to produce a number that gives credit to an individual player for their teams’ wins. It’s not a perfect stat, but neither is the MVP criteria. And like those criteria, wins are imperative, potentially limiting a stat-padding losing player from winning the award.
In the last 20 NBA seasons, 55% of MVP winners have led the league in Win Shares, and 90% of MVPs ranked top 4 in win shares. The only 2 times in 20 seasons, an MVP winner has ranked outside of the top 4 is in consecutive seasons, both awards going to Steve Nash. The Nash MVPs are often a point of controversy and discussion and can in part be attributed to narratives at the time. But that’s a whole different discussion. The point is, win shares have historically been important when considering the MVP.
Now, for the fourth consecutive season, Nikola Jokic is leading the NBA in Win Shares, with Shai and Giannis filling in the 2 and 3 position on the leaderboard, and Luka ranking just outside of the top 5. While number 6 on the list is not quite Steve Nash’s 8 and 11th rankings, Luka would join the company of Nash, as the only players in decades to rank so low in this MVP stat.
Nikola Jokic’s case for the MVP is the most compelling. Potentially capturing the 1 seed while leading the league in most advanced stats, like PER, Win Shares, Box Plus Minus, and VORP, makes it seem like Jokic is on his way to his third MVP award, and who knows, maybe another title.
My question is, how far can Jokic ascend on the all-time list? If he secures his third MVP award, he'll join an elite group of only eight players in NBA history to achieve such a feat. Each of these players are undoubtedly among the greatest players ever to grace the sport. Jokic would unquestionably be among this esteemed company.
Victories are also pivotal. You must win. Multiple championships would certainly elevate him to the echelon of the greatest players in NBA history. Among the trio of three-time MVP winners, only Moses Malone possesses a solitary championship ring. However, not all NBA titles carry equal weight, with some bearing greater significance than others. The significance of Jokic securing championships for a smaller-market team like Denver, the team drafted him, cannot be overstated. These achievements parallel the impact of James bringing a title to the Cleveland Cavaliers or Dirk leading the Dallas Mavericks to a ring.
The fact that the Denver Nuggets have a realistic chance to clinch another championship this season underscores Jokic’s brilliance, even with the exceptional quality of his supporting cast. The MVP race has essentially become a foregone conclusion. Nikola Jokic is currently experiencing one of the most remarkable peaks in NBA history. He is the Most Valuable Player in the league. And in many ways, the Denver Nuggets should be regarded as favorites to secure another championship title.